Migris, who describe and reduce geological and economical exploration risk by simulating geological processes and visualizing the results in interactive 3D-models, modelling saw a high chance of success in this well.
In their original prediction, if trap and reservoir were both present, they foresaw that the well had a 93 per cent chance of finding hydrocarbons.
According to Øyvind Sylta, general manager of Migris, the result was the most likely outcome for this class, with very high modelled flowrisk values.
– It is of course very encouraging that our first prediction was placed in the class of a High probability discovery, thus making positive news when our prediction was confirmed.
The well proved hydrocarbons in the Middle Jurassic Hugin Formation. According to the NPD press release, the volume is in between 6.3 and 17 MMboe of oil.
– We do not calculate volumes in these predictions. Quantitative predictions are done on more detailed maps and models, and usually in close cooperation with the license operator, according to Sylta.
The appraisal well, 15/3-12 A, however, saw only water–wet reservoirs in the main target. Sylta is unsure why the appraisal did not prove hydrocarbons here, as no more information is given in the press release.
The appraisal well did encounter some oil shows though, in the Sleipner Formation, also of a Middle Jurassic age.
Migris will return to expronews.com with more predictions in the near future.