Rystad Energy expects a 17 % CAPEX decline in 2020

In a new report, Rystad Energy foresees a global decline in exploration and production activities (Global capital expenditure - CAPEX) of 17 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019, a drop by up to 100 billion USD this year, from 2019's 546 billion USD to ~450 billion USD.

This will be the lowest CAPEX of the last 13 years. In their scenario, Rystad Energy expects 34 USD per boe in 2020 and 44 USD per boe in 2021.

In the North Sea area, Aker BP, Equinor, DNO and OKEA, Apache and other companies have already cut their budgets by 20 per cent. Also, Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil and Shell will cut similarly in their budget, according to Rystad Energy.

Rystad also sees as April approaches, that OPEC+ producers are expected to flood the market with even more additional oil, Brent prices are now at ~25 USD per boe and are likely to decline even further.

In a low case scenario, where Brent averages 25 USD per boe in 2020, global investments may plunge to around 380 billion USD this year, falling to almost 300 billion USD in 2021, a 14-year and a 15-year low respectively.