Oil production to increase in 2020

Locomotives Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg are the main reasons for the oil production increase in NW Europe, undeveloped fields and discoveries will also add to this.

– Western Europe’s oil supply, with Norway and the United Kingdom as key contributors, is set for a renaissance this year and a growing trajectory going forward, according to Rystad Energy’s newsletter of March 2020.

Oil production in NW Europe will increase by 19 % in 2020, ramping up from a 2013-2019 valley, thereafter the oil production level will continue to grow beyond 2024, reaching 3.5 MMboe per day, Rystad continues.

The main locomotives for the predicted increase are the Norwegian fields Johan Sverdrup in the North Sea and Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea, both operated by Equinor. Sverdrup started producing in October 2019 where production alone adds 360 000 boe per day in 2020.

Fields and discoveries mentioned in the text. Map: NPD Factpages.

Norway and the UK are the main oil producers, contributing with 93 % of the oil production in the last ten years. The Netherlands, Denmark and others account for the rest of the production, adding up to 180 000 boe per day.

Figure kindly provided by Rystad Energy

In the near future, Johan Sverdrup phase II and Johan Castberg will further add 300 000 boe per day from 2022, according to Rystad.

Of other significant discoveries, Rystad points to the NOAKA area with Equinor’s 30/11-8 S (Krafla/Askja) in the North Sea, and Equinor’s 7324/8-1 (Wisting and Hanssen) in the Barents Sea.

The UKCS holds several recent developments, mainly BP’s  Clair Ridge (onstream in 2018) and Equinor’s Mariner (onstream 2019), together an additional oil growth of 70 000 boe is expected here in the years to come, according to Rystad.

According to Equinor, the Mariner field produces 55 000 boe per day, while BP says that the Clair Ridge field produces 120 000 boe per day at peak production.

On the UKCS, Hurricane will make a major impact in the years to come with its ’s Halifax discovery with recoverable 800 MMboe, the Lincoln full-field development expected to be sanctioned in 2022, and the Lancaster field which came onstream in 2019.

Also, Equinor’s Rosebank/Lochnagar discovery of ~300 MMboe and BP’s Clair South (~230 MMboe, to be sanctioned in 2022) is expected to add significantly to the overall production.

-Unsanctioned discoveries, both in the UK and Norway, with favourable breakeven prices and sizeable resource potential, will further contribute to investments and support production growth in the region going forward, Rystad concludes.

Hurricane will present their field and discovery West of Shetland at the “NCS Exploration – Recent discoveries” conference in May 12-13 at Scandic Fornebu in Oslo.