In their Energy Outlook, issued every year, BP looks at the broad forces shaping the energy.
Firstly, the world needs more energy, and in their own scenario demand grows from 25% to 35% in 20 years, that is from 2020 to 2040.
The energy consumption, according to PB, grows hand in hand with improvements in human wellbeing and progress in some of the poorest countries in the world. In short, the world needs more energy in order to continue to grow and prosper.
Secondly, and equally important, according to BP, we need to see a significant change in behaviour if carbon emissions are going to fall significantly. For this purpose, BP has developed a rapid transmission scenario in which carbon emissions fall by about 45% by 2040.
Around two-thirds of the reductions in CO2 would originate from the substantial decarbonization of the power sector, BP says in their Energy Outlook.
The reduction in CO2 from industry and buildings accounts for much of the remaining reduction in emissions, reflecting improved efficiency, greater use of CCS and switching into lower-carbon fuels.
Despite the strong growth in renewables, oil and gas account for close to 50% of primary energy in 2040 in the BP Rapid Transition scenario.
In consequence, the level of oil consumption falls to around 80 MMbopd (from today’s close to 100MMbopd) in 2040.
In their Rapid Transition scenario, BP predicts that CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage) is in use in both power and industry and captures around 4.5 billion tons (Gt) of CO2 by 2040. (For comparison, as per 2019 the world emits roughly 35 Gt CO2 per year.) Given that one million tons are captured at Sleipner every year, such an ambition necessitates some 4500 constructions of equal size in 20 years, or the building of more than 200 every year, a new one every second day. An increase in the use of metals should also be expected.