Technology is not (!) key to successStig-Morten Knutsen, NPD, in a talk given to NCS Exploration next week, shows that less than 5% of wells on the NCS are testing new plays. Photo: NPD

Technology is not (!) key to success

The petroleum geoscience community has not improved their ability to predict the outcome of exploration drilling, according to Stig-Morten Knutsen, Assistant Director, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

At NCS Exploration May 21-22, at Fornebu outside Oslo, Knutsen will give a talk entitled “The Most Surprising Wells – and their Relationship with the use of Advanced Technology”.

– Despite the growth of data, and improved technologies and methods, the predictability of the exploration community has not changed much the last 25 years, as illustrated by the figure, Knutsen says.

The prognosis (‘prospect mean’ with uncertainty range P10 – P90) and results for oil-wells drilled between 2007 and 2016. The same trend is valid for gas-prospects and shows that most of the well-results are below expected pre-drill volumes, and many are also outside the P10 – P90 range.

– In parts of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, the use of seismic attributes and lithology/fluid prediction, including AVO, has been a driver for both prospects and drilling decisions., Knutsen says.

NCS Exploration – Recent Advances in Exploration Technology

In his talk, Stig-Morten Knutsen will conclude that technology and complex technology analysis, is not a very strong driver for prospect evaluation and well-decisions.

Further, he will conclude that overall post-well analyses suggest that it is rarely the evaluation of the technology itself, that causes well-results to be surprising or not.

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